论文标题

用竞争性边缘和发电投资对电力市场进行建模

Modelling an electricity market oligopoly with a competitive fringe and generation investments

论文作者

Devine, Mel T., Siddiqui, Sauleh

论文摘要

市场电力行为通常发生在现代批发电力市场中。混合互补性问题(MCP)通常用于市场能力的计算建模,其特征是具有竞争性边缘的寡头垄断。但是,这样的模型可以导致近视和矛盾的行为。文献中的先前作品建议使用猜想的变化来克服这一建模问题。但是,我们首先表明,与所有公司都有投资决策的竞争边缘的寡头垄断也将在使用猜想变化建模时会导致近视和矛盾的行为。因此,我们与平衡限制(EPEC)一起开发了一个平衡问题,以建模这种电力市场结构。 EPEC建模了两种类型的参与者:具有市场力量的价格制定公司和不销售价格的公司。除了发电决策外,所有公司还为多种新生成技术都有内源性投资决策。结果表明,在对竞争性边缘和发电投资决策进行寡头垄断建模时,EPEC模型可以代表更现实的市场结构并克服MCP中观察到的近视行为。 EPEC认为,在投资决策和企业的利润中发现了多个均衡。但是,在整个平衡中,市场价格和消费者成本仍然相对稳定。此外,该模型还显示了价格制定公司偶尔出售其某些电力低于边际成本的最佳选择,以便将价格付费公司推迟到进一步投资市场。这种战略行为不会被MCP或成本最小化模型捕获。

Market power behaviour often occurs in modern wholesale electricity markets. Mixed Complementarity Problems (MCPs) have been typically used for computational modelling of market power when it is characterised by an oligopoly with competitive fringe. However, such models can lead to myopic and contradictory behaviour. Previous works in the literature have suggested using conjectural variations to overcome this modelling issue. We first show however, that an oligopoly with competitive fringe where all firms have investment decisions, will also lead to myopic and contradictory behaviour when modelled using conjectural variations. Consequently, we develop an Equilibrium Problem with Equilibrium Constraints (EPEC) to model such an electricity market structure. The EPEC models two types of players: price-making firms, who have market power, and price-taking firms, who do not. In addition to generation decisions, all firms have endogenous investment decisions for multiple new generating technologies. The results indicate that, when modelling an oligopoly with a competitive fringe and generation investment decisions, an EPEC model can represent a more realistic market structure and overcome the myopic behaviour observed in MCPs. The EPEC considered found multiple equilibria for investment decisions and firms' profits. However, market prices and consumer costs were found to remain relatively constant across the equilibria. In addition, the model shows how it may be optimal for price-making firms to occasionally sell some of their electricity below marginal cost in order to de-incentivize price-taking firms from investing further into the market. Such strategic behaviour would not be captured by MCP or cost-minimisation models.

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