论文标题

实时竞标预测可扩展的竞标景观

Scalable Bid Landscape Forecasting in Real-time Bidding

论文作者

Ghosh, Aritra, Mitra, Saayan, Sarkhel, Somdeb, Xie, Jason, Wu, Gang, Swaminathan, Viswanathan

论文摘要

在程序化广告中,通常使用二价(SP)拍卖实时出售广告插槽。出价最高的广告商获胜,但仅支付第二高的出价(称为获胜的价格)。在SP中,对于一个项目,每个出价者的主要策略是从投标人的角度出价真实价值。但是,在实践环境中,具有预算限制,竞标真实价值是一个次优的策略。因此,为了制定最佳的招标策略,准确地学习获胜的价格分配至关重要。此外,代表广告商竞标的需求端平台(DSP),如果赢得拍卖,则观察到获胜的价格。对于丢失拍卖,DSP只能将其竞标价格视为未知获胜价格的下限。在文献中,通常使用审查的回归来建模部分观察到的数据。审查回归中的一个普遍假设是,获胜价格是从固定方差(同型)单模式分布(通常通常是高斯)中得出的。但是,实际上,这些假设经常受到侵犯。我们放松这些假设,并提出了一个异质的完全参数审查的回归方法以及混合密度审查网络。我们的方法不仅概括了审查的回归,而且还为模型任意分布的现实世界数据提供了灵活性。公开可用数据集的实验评估以获取价格估计,证明了我们方法的有效性。此外,我们在最大的需求端平台之一上评估了算法,并且与基线解决方案相比,已经取得了重大改进。

In programmatic advertising, ad slots are usually sold using second-price (SP) auctions in real-time. The highest bidding advertiser wins but pays only the second-highest bid (known as the winning price). In SP, for a single item, the dominant strategy of each bidder is to bid the true value from the bidder's perspective. However, in a practical setting, with budget constraints, bidding the true value is a sub-optimal strategy. Hence, to devise an optimal bidding strategy, it is of utmost importance to learn the winning price distribution accurately. Moreover, a demand-side platform (DSP), which bids on behalf of advertisers, observes the winning price if it wins the auction. For losing auctions, DSPs can only treat its bidding price as the lower bound for the unknown winning price. In literature, typically censored regression is used to model such partially observed data. A common assumption in censored regression is that the winning price is drawn from a fixed variance (homoscedastic) uni-modal distribution (most often Gaussian). However, in reality, these assumptions are often violated. We relax these assumptions and propose a heteroscedastic fully parametric censored regression approach, as well as a mixture density censored network. Our approach not only generalizes censored regression but also provides flexibility to model arbitrarily distributed real-world data. Experimental evaluation on the publicly available dataset for winning price estimation demonstrates the effectiveness of our method. Furthermore, we evaluate our algorithm on one of the largest demand-side platforms and significant improvement has been achieved in comparison with the baseline solutions.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源