论文标题
厄尔尼诺现象的前体：气候网络分析
Precursors of the El Niño Phenomenon: A climate network analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
气候现象前体的识别具有巨大的实际重要性。最近的工作基于表面空气温度数据构建了气候网络，以分析厄尔尼诺现象。我们利用在网络中不连续的渗透过渡和其他网络数量之前发生的微透明来识别一组可靠的厄尔尼诺尼诺发作前体。这些先驱在1979年至2018年期间发生的十二个厄尔尼诺尼诺发作中的九个，交货时间从六到十个月不等。我们还发现数据中倾斜事件的指标。
The identification of precursors of climatic phenomena has enormous practical importance. Recent work constructs a climate network based on surface air temperature data to analyze the El Niño phenomena. We utilize microtransitions which occur before the discontinuous percolation transition in the network as well as other network quantities to identify a set of reliable precursors of El Niño episodes. These precursors identify nine out of twelve El Niño episodes occurring in the period of 1979 to 2018 with a lead time varying from six to ten months. We also find indicators of tipping events in the data.
