论文标题
耐克蒸发鞋对马拉松表演的影响的观察性研究
An Observational Study of the Effect of Nike Vaporfly Shoes on Marathon Performance
论文作者
论文摘要
我们从2015年至2019年期间从系统的精英和亚精英运动员的系统样本中收集了马拉松性能数据，然后搜索了互联网以获取这些表演的公开照片，以确定在每种表演中是否佩戴了Nike Vaporfly鞋。在控制运动员能力和比赛难度下，我们估计了穿着蒸气鞋的马拉松时代的影响。假设蒸气鞋的效果是加性的，我们估计蒸气鞋可以在2.0到3.9分钟之间改善男性时代，而它们在0.8至3.5分钟之间的提高了女性时代。假设蒸气鞋的效果是乘法的，我们估计它们的男性时间在1.4％至2.8％之间，女性的表现在0.6％至2.2％之间。与运动员在改用蒸气鞋之前穿着的鞋子相比，这些改进是相比的，并且代表了预期的改进，而不是保证的改进。
We collected marathon performance data from a systematic sample of elite and sub-elite athletes over the period 2015 to 2019, then searched the internet for publicly-available photographs of these performances, identifying whether the Nike Vaporfly shoes were worn or not in each performance. Controlling for athlete ability and race difficulty, we estimated the effect on marathon times of wearing the Vaporfly shoes. Assuming that the effect of Vaporfly shoes is additive, we estimate that the Vaporfly shoes improve men's times between 2.0 and 3.9 minutes, while they improve women's times between 0.8 and 3.5 minutes. Assuming that the effect of Vaporfly shoes is multiplicative, we estimate that they improve men's times between 1.4 and 2.8 percent and women's performances between 0.6 and 2.2 percent. The improvements are in comparison to the shoe the athlete was wearing before switching to Vaporfly shoes, and represents an expected improvement rather than a guaranteed improvement.
