论文标题
通过动态建模对COVID-19的流行病分析
Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in China by dynamical modeling
论文作者
论文摘要
在武汉（Wuhan）引起的新型冠状病毒引起的肺炎（Covid-19）的爆发引起了全世界的关注。在这里，我们提出了一个广义的SEIR模型来分析这种流行病。根据1月20日至2020年2月9日中国国家卫生委员会的公共数据，我们可靠地估算了关键的流行参数，并对5个不同地区的拐点和可能的结束时间进行预测。根据乐观的估计，北京和上海的流行病将在两周内尽快结束，而在中国的大部分地区，包括湖北省的大多数城市，反流行的成功将不迟于3月中旬。武汉的情况仍然非常严重，至少基于公共数据，直到2月15日。我们预计它将在4月初结束。此外，通过反推理，我们发现Covid-19在大陆，湖北省和武汉的爆发都可以追溯到2019年12月末，并且在早期阶段大约两天。
The outbreak of novel coronavirus-caused pneumonia (COVID-19) in Wuhan has attracted worldwide attention. Here, we propose a generalized SEIR model to analyze this epidemic. Based on the public data of National Health Commission of China from Jan. 20th to Feb. 9th, 2020, we reliably estimate key epidemic parameters and make predictions on the inflection point and possible ending time for 5 different regions. According to optimistic estimation, the epidemics in Beijing and Shanghai will end soon within two weeks, while for most part of China, including the majority of cities in Hubei province, the success of anti-epidemic will be no later than the middle of March. The situation in Wuhan is still very severe, at least based on public data until Feb. 15th. We expect it will end up at the beginning of April. Moreover, by inverse inference, we find the outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland, Hubei province and Wuhan all can be dated back to the end of December 2019, and the doubling time is around two days at the early stage.
