论文标题
预测意大利共证19爆发的最终结果
Predicting the ultimate outcome of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy
论文作者
论文摘要
在Covid-19爆发期间，必须监测政府在流行病进程中采取的措施的有效性。在这里，我们表明，意大利已经有足够的数据来预测该过程的结果。我们表明，使用适当的指标，湖北省和意大利的数据具有惊人的相似性，这使我们能够计算预期的已确认案件数量和在过程结束时的死亡人数。随着新数据点日益产生，我们的预测将有所改善，这可以帮助做出进一步的公开决策。该方法基于描述宏观水平上的过程的逻辑增长方程的数据分析。在撰写第一版时，意大利的死亡人数预计为6000，危机的预测结束是2020年4月15日。在此新版本中，我们讨论了从那以后的两周发生的变化。趋势在2020年3月17日意大利卫生系统达到其容量限制时发生了巨大变化。没有这个限制，可能会有3500人死亡。相反，由于局限性，预计现在有17.000人死亡，这是五倍增加。危机的预测结束现已转移到2020年5月8日。
During the COVID-19 outbreak, it is essential to monitor the effectiveness of measures taken by governments on the course of the epidemic. Here we show that there is already a sufficient amount of data collected in Italy to predict the outcome of the process. We show that using the proper metric, the data from Hubei Province and Italy has striking similarity, which enables us to calculate the expected number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths by the end of the process. Our predictions will improve as new data points are generated day by day, which can help to make further public decisions. The method is based on the data analysis of logistic growth equations describing the process on the macroscopic level. At the time of writing of the first version, the number of fatalities in Italy was expected to be 6000, and the predicted end of the crisis was April 15, 2020. In this new version, we discuss what changed in the two weeks which passed since then. The trend changed drastically on March 17, 2020, when the Italian health system reached its capacity limit. Without this limit, probably 3500 more people would have died. Instead, due to the limitations, 17.000 people are expected to die now, which is a five-fold increase. The predicted end of the crisis now shifted to May 8, 2020.
