论文标题
探索R0的细微差别：2009年大流行性流感的八个估计和应用
Exploring the nuances of R0: Eight estimates and application to 2009 pandemic influenza
论文作者
论文摘要
近一个世纪以来，最初的繁殖数（R0）被用作比较传染病爆发的一个数字摘要，但是R0没有“标准”估计量。估计R0的困难既来自疾病如何通过人群传播以及统计估计方法的差异。我们描述了用于估计R0的八种方法，并提供了有关在存在不同疾病参数的存在下这些估计如何变化的彻底模拟研究。作为动机，我们分析了美国H1N1大流行性流感的2009年爆发，并将我们八种方法的结果与先前的研究进行了比较。我们讨论了结果最重要的方面，这些方面影响了R0的估计，其中包括人口规模，所使用的时间段以及传染性人的初始百分比。此外，我们讨论预处理发生率计数如何影响R0的估计值。最后，我们提供了估计点估计和置信区间的指南，以创建可靠的，可比的R0估计值。
For nearly a century, the initial reproduction number (R0) has been used as a one number summary to compare outbreaks of infectious disease, yet there is no `standard' estimator for R0. Difficulties in estimating R0 arise both from how a disease transmits through a population as well as from differences in statistical estimation method. We describe eight methods used to estimate R0 and provide a thorough simulation study of how these estimates change in the presence of different disease parameters. As motivation, we analyze the 2009 outbreak of the H1N1 pandemic influenza in the USA and compare the results from our eight methods to a previous study. We discuss the most important aspects from our results which effect the estimation of R0, which include the population size, time period used, and the initial percent of infectious individuals. Additionally, we discuss how pre-processing incidence counts may effect estimates of R0. Finally, we provide guidelines for estimating point estimates and confidence intervals to create reliable, comparable estimates of R0.
