论文标题
通过供应链传播经济影响：巨型城市锁定的案例反对COVID-19
The propagation of the economic impact through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown against the spread of COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
这项研究量化了可能封锁东京的经济效应，以防止Covid-19的传播。由于供需不足，锁定的负面影响可能会通过供应链传播到其他地区。在日本将近160万公司的实际供应链应用基于代理的模型时，我们模拟了东京以外的生产活动将发生的事情，而对于公民在东京的生存并不重要的生产活动被关闭了一定时期。我们发现，当东京被锁定一个月时，对其他地区的间接影响将是对东京的直接影响的两倍，导致日本的总生产损失为27万亿日元，占其年GDP的5.3％。尽管东京的产量关闭占日本总产量的21％，但锁定将导致一个月内日本的每日产量减少86％。
This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo to prevent spread of COVID-19. The negative effect of the lockdown may propagate to other regions through supply chains because of shortage of supply and demand. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly 1.6 million firms in Japan, we simulate what would happen to production activities outside Tokyo when production activities that are not essential to citizens' survival in Tokyo were shut down for a certain period. We find that when Tokyo is locked down for a month, the indirect effect on other regions would be twice as large as the direct effect on Tokyo, leading to a total production loss of 27 trillion yen in Japan, or 5.3% of its annual GDP. Although the production shut down in Tokyo accounts for 21% of the total production in Japan, the lockdown would result in a reduction of the daily production in Japan by 86% in a month.
