论文标题
关于瑞典共vid-19的大流行的模型研究
Model studies on the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究了Covid-19引起的瑞典感染和死亡的增加，该模型首先是分析性易感感染（SI）模型和标准易感性感染的（SIR）模型。然后，在SIR框架内，我们研究了易感感染的已故（SID）相关性。所有模型都很好地重现了受感染病例的数量，并提供了相似的预测。引起我们深切关注的是SI和SID模型所预测的大量死亡。我们的分析表明，无论我们模型预测的可能不确定性如何，接下来的几天对于确定死亡案件的未来演变至关重要（更新于4月2日）。
We study the increases of infections and deaths in Sweden caused by COVID-19 with several different models: Firstly an analytical susceptible-infected (SI) model and the standard susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Then within the SIR framework we study the susceptible-infected-deceased (SID) correlations. All models reproduce well the number of infected cases and give similar predictions. What causes us deep concern is the large number of deaths projected by the SI and SID models. Our analysis shows that, irrespective of the possible uncertainty of our model prediction, the next few days can be critical for determining the future evolution of the death cases (Updated April 02).
