论文标题

流行病学中的确定性模型:从建模到实施

Deterministic Models in Epidemiology: From Modeling to Implementation

论文作者

Dadlani, Aresh, Afolabi, Richard O., Jung, Hyoyoung, Sohraby, Khosrow, Kim, Kiseon

论文摘要

生物疾病的突然爆发和传播一直是人类的长期关注。长期以来,数学建模一直是一种简单而有效的工具,可以调查,预测和控制通过个人的传播疾病传播。文献中已经报道了关于流行模型及其变体的无数作品。为了更好地预测特定疾病的动态,重要的是采用最合适的模型。在本文中,我们研究了一些广泛认可的确定性流行模型,其中人口根据每个人的健康状况分为隔室。特别是,我们提供了这种模型的人口统计分类,并根据数学表述,接近平衡点稳定性和疾病爆发阈值条件(基本的繁殖比)进行了研究。此外,我们讨论了在流行性建模期间需要考虑的各种影响因素。本文的主要目的是提供对确定性流行模型中数学复杂性的基本理解,这些图形插图通过实施获得。

The abrupt outbreak and transmission of biological diseases has always been a long-time concern of humankind. For long, mathematical modeling has served as a simple and yet efficient tool to investigate, predict, and control spread of communicable diseases through individuals. A myriad of works on epidemic models and their variants have been reported in the literature. For better prediction of the dynamics of a particular disease, it is important to adopt the most suitable model. In this paper, we study some of the widely-appreciated deterministic epidemic models in which the population is divided into compartments based on the health status of each individual. In particular, we provide a demographic classification of such models and study each of them in terms of mathematical formulation, near equilibrium point stability properties, and disease outbreak threshold conditions (basic reproduction ratio). Furthermore, we discuss the various influential factors that need to be considered during epidemic modeling. The main objective of this article is to provide a basic understanding of the mathematical complexity incurred in deterministic epidemic models with the aid of graphical illustrations obtained through implementation.

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