论文标题

服务的共同制作:使用霍克斯流程中的联络中心建模服务

The Co-Production of Service: Modeling Services in Contact Centers Using Hawkes Processes

论文作者

Daw, Andrew, Castellanos, Antonio, Yom-Tov, Galit B., Pender, Jamol, Gruendlinger, Leor

论文摘要

在客户支持联系中心中,每个服务互动都涉及客户与代理之间的消息对话;他们共同交流信息,解决问题并共同共同制作服务。由于到目前为止,服务的进度是由对话历史塑造的,因此我们提出了一个标有霍克斯的霍克斯过程集群模型的客户代理交互模型。为了评估我们的随机服务模型,我们将其应用于包含近500万条消息的行业联络中心数据集。通过新的残差分析比较和几个蒙特卡洛拟合测试,我们表明霍克斯集群模型确实捕获了服务的核心动态,并且还超过了不包含服务历史的经典模型。此外,在完全数据驱动的模拟中,我们演示了如何在操作上利用这种依赖历史的模型来为基于预测的路由策略提供信息。我们表明,根据Hawkes模型,可以用简单的修改来超越使用广泛的客户路由策略。通过对联系中心文献中提出的风格化模型的分析,我们证明服务异质性可能会导致这种表现不佳,此外,如果不仔细管理服务关闭服务,将会发生这种异质性。

In customer support contact centers, every service interaction involves a messaging dialogue between a customer and an agent; together, they exchange information, solve problems, and collectively co-produce the service. Because the service progression is shaped by the history of conversation so far, we propose a bivariate, marked Hawkes process cluster model of the customer-agent interaction. To evaluate our stochastic model of service, we apply it to an industry contact center dataset containing nearly 5 million messages. Through both a novel residual analysis comparison and several Monte Carlo goodness-of-fit tests, we show that the Hawkes cluster model indeed captures dynamics at the heart of the service and also surpasses classic models that do not incorporate the service history. Furthermore, in an entirely data-driven simulation, we demonstrate how this history-dependent model can be leveraged operationally to inform a prediction-based routing policy. We show that widely-used and well-studied customer routing policies can be outperformed with simple modifications according to the Hawkes model. Through analysis of a stylized model proposed in the contact center literature, we prove that service heterogeneity can cause this underperformance and, moreover, that such heterogeneity will occur if service closures are not carefully managed.

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