学术文献库

We present a System Dynamics (SD) model of the Covid-19 pandemic spread in India. The detailed age-structured compartment-based model endogenously captures various disease transmission pathways, expanding significantly from the standard SEIR model. The model is customized for India by using the appropriate population pyramid, contact rate matrices, external arrivals (as per actual data), and a few other calibrated fractions based on the reported cases of Covid-19 in India. Also, we have explicitly modeled, using independent time-variant levers, the effects of testing, contact tracing, isolating Covid-positive patients, quarantining, use of mask/better hygiene practices, social distancing through contact rate reductions at distinct zones of home(H), work(W), school(S) and other(O) locations. Simulation results show that, even after an extended lock-down, some non-trivial number of infections (even asymptomatic) will be left and the pandemic will resurface. Only tools that work against the pandemic is high rate of testing of those who show Covid-19 like symptoms, isolating them if they are positive and contact tracing all contacts of positive patients and quarantining them, in combination with use of face masks and personal hygiene. A wide range of combination of effectiveness of contact tracing, isolation, quarantining and personal hygiene measures help minimize the pandemic impact and some imperfections in implementation of one measure can be compensated by better implementation of other measures.