论文标题
旅游业损失了多少？估计菲律宾的旅游业损失
How much did the Tourism Industry Lost? Estimating Earning Loss of Tourism in the Philippines
论文作者
论文摘要
该研究旨在预测菲律宾旅游业的总收入在199日大流行期间使用季节性自动回归综合移动平均线。根据自相关和部分自相关图考虑了几种模型。根据Akaike的信息标准（AIC）和均方根误差，Arima（1,1,1）$ \ times $（1,0,1）$ _ {12} $被确定为具有AIC的更好模型，其AIC值为$ -414.51 $ and $ -414.51 $ and Rmse $ 47884.8444.85 $。此外，如果COVID-19危机将持续到7月，预计该行业估计将损失约1705亿比索。减轻问题的可能建议包括停止外国旅游业，但如果确认该地区没有COVID-19的案件，则允许国内旅行区域，假设每个地区都会遵循严格的指导方针，以消除或防止传播；或将其扩展到没有共同案件的国家。
The study aimed to forecast the total earnings lost of the tourism industry of the Philippines during the COVID-19 pandemic using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average. Several models were considered based on the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation graphs. Based on the Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Root Mean Squared Error, ARIMA(1,1,1)$\times$(1,0,1)$_{12}$ was identified to be the better model among the others with an AIC value of $-414.51$ and RMSE of $47884.85$. Moreover, it is expected that the industry will have an estimated earning loss of around 170.5 billion pesos if the COVID-19 crisis will continue up to July. Possible recommendations to mitigate the problem includes stopping foreign tourism but allowing regions for domestic travels if the regions are confirmed to have no cases of COVID-19, assuming that every regions will follow the stringent guidelines to eliminate or prevent transmissions; or extending this to countries with no COVID-19 cases.
