论文标题
移动电话位置数据揭示了社会距离的影响和地理变化对COVID-19的传播的效果和地理变化
Mobile phone location data reveal the effect and geographic variation of social distancing on the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic
论文作者
论文摘要
SARS-COV-2和冠状病毒传染病（Covid-19）的出现已成为大流行。社交（身体）距离是降低SARS-COV-2传输率的关键非药物控制措施，但需要高级依从性。使用Descartes Labs和Safegraph提供的大规模匿名手机位置数据的日常旅行距离和居住时间，我们量化了美国遵循社会疏远授权的程度及其对COVID-19案件增长的影响。共同-19增长率与旅行距离衰减率与家庭停留时间的相关性为-0.586（95％CI：-0.742〜 -0.370）和0.526（95％CI：0.293〜0.700）。总体情况总案例的州特异性加倍时间的增加范围从1.04〜6.86天到建立社交距离后的3.66〜30.29天不等，与机械流行病预测模型一致。社会距离的授权减少了共同遵循时共同传播的传播。
The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and the coronavirus infectious disease (COVID-19) has become a pandemic. Social (physical) distancing is a key non-pharmacologic control measure to reduce the transmission rate of SARS-COV-2, but high-level adherence is needed. Using daily travel distance and stay-at-home time derived from large-scale anonymous mobile phone location data provided by Descartes Labs and SafeGraph, we quantify the degree to which social distancing mandates have been followed in the U.S. and its effect on growth of COVID-19 cases. The correlation between the COVID-19 growth rate and travel distance decay rate and dwell time at home change rate was -0.586 (95% CI: -0.742 ~ -0.370) and 0.526 (95% CI: 0.293 ~ 0.700), respectively. Increases in state-specific doubling time of total cases ranged from 1.04 ~ 6.86 days to 3.66 ~ 30.29 days after social distancing orders were put in place, consistent with mechanistic epidemic prediction models. Social distancing mandates reduce the spread of COVID-19 when they are followed.
