论文标题
锁定需要多长时间？
How long does a lockdown need to be?
论文作者
论文摘要
许多国家已经采用了社会疏远，通常以锁定的形式采用，以对比19covid-19的传播。我们讨论了与流行病扩散相比的社会距离的时间方面。我们认为，一项基于社会距离的策略需要长期维持相对措施，而更清晰的策略也更加清晰地使用了早期检测和迅速隔离，这既可以更有效地降低流行性峰值，又可以放松社会疏远的措施。我们更详细地考虑意大利的情况，通过最近引入的SIR型流行病学模型模拟不同策略的影响。标题中问题的简短答案是：“这取决于您还在做什么”。
Social distancing, often in the form of lockdown, has been adopted by many countries as a way to contrast the spreading of COVID-19. We discuss the temporal aspects of social distancing in contrasting an epidemic diffusion. We argue that a strategy based uniquely on social distancing requires to maintain the relative measures for a very long time, while a more articulate strategy, which also uses early detection and prompt isolation, can be both more efficient on reducing the epidemic peak and allow to relax the social distancing measures after a much shorter time. We consider in more detail the situation in Italy, simulating the effect of different strategies through a recently introduced SIR-type epidemiological model. The short answer to the question in the title is: "it depends on what else you do".
