论文标题
流行病模型及其用于预测COVID-19在印度和美国的传播的应用
An Epidemic Model SIPHERD and its application for prediction of the spread of COVID-19 infection for India and USA
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一种流行病模型，其中三类感染携带者有症状，纯粹无症状和暴露的感染携带者被视为不同的感染传播率，这些传播率取决于锁定和社会疏远。感染载体的检测率取决于每天进行的测试。该模型适用于德国和韩国的共同爆发，以验证其预测能力，然后在未来几个月内通过不同的锁定情况和测试，向印度和美国申请了其蔓延的预测。
We propose an epidemic model SIPHERD in which three categories of infection carriers Symptomatic, Purely Asymptomatic, and Exposed are considered with different rates of transmission of infection that are taken dependent on the lockdown and social distancing. The rate of detection of the infected carriers is taken dependent on the tests done per day. The model is applied for the COVID outbreak in Germany and South Korea to validate its predictive capabilities and then applied to India and the United States for the prediction of its spread with different lockdown situations and testing in the coming months.
