论文标题
现成的深度学习还不够:简约,贝叶斯和因果关系
Off-the-shelf deep learning is not enough: parsimony, Bayes and causality
论文作者
论文摘要
深度神经网络(“深度学习”)已成为一种选择的技术,可以解决自然语言处理,计算机视觉,语音识别和游戏玩法中的问题,并且在短短几年内就导致了超人水平的表现,并迎来了“ AI”的新潮。在这些成功的推动下,身体科学的研究人员在将深度学习融入各自领域方面取得了稳步的进步。但是,这种采用带来了需要认可和面对的重大挑战。在这里,我们讨论了机会和障碍,以实施材料科学中深度学习的实施,重点是机器学习的相关性质与因果假设驱动物理科学的性质之间的关系。我们认为,深度学习和人工智能现在已经有好处,可以彻底改变因果关系的知名度,而理论上的应用也是如此。当混淆因子被冷冻或仅弱变化时,这将为实验领域中有效的深度学习解决方案打开途径。同样,这些方法通过得出减少的表示,推导算法复杂性或恢复生成的物理模型来理解现实世界系统物理的途径。但是,扩展深度学习和“ AI”对于具有不清楚的因果关系的模型可能会产生误导性且可能不正确的结果。在这里,我们争辩说,广泛采用了贝叶斯方法,这些方法纳入了先验知识,开发与物理约束的DL解决方案以及最终采用因果模型,为基本和应用研究提供了前进的途径。最值得注意的是,尽管这些进步可以改变以我们无法想象的方式进行科学的方式,但机器学习不会很快替代科学。
Deep neural networks ("deep learning") have emerged as a technology of choice to tackle problems in natural language processing, computer vision, speech recognition and gameplay, and in just a few years has led to superhuman level performance and ushered in a new wave of "AI." Buoyed by these successes, researchers in the physical sciences have made steady progress in incorporating deep learning into their respective domains. However, such adoption brings substantial challenges that need to be recognized and confronted. Here, we discuss both opportunities and roadblocks to implementation of deep learning within materials science, focusing on the relationship between correlative nature of machine learning and causal hypothesis driven nature of physical sciences. We argue that deep learning and AI are now well positioned to revolutionize fields where causal links are known, as is the case for applications in theory. When confounding factors are frozen or change only weakly, this leaves open the pathway for effective deep learning solutions in experimental domains. Similarly, these methods offer a pathway towards understanding the physics of real-world systems, either via deriving reduced representations, deducing algorithmic complexity, or recovering generative physical models. However, extending deep learning and "AI" for models with unclear causal relationship can produce misleading and potentially incorrect results. Here, we argue the broad adoption of Bayesian methods incorporating prior knowledge, development of DL solutions with incorporated physical constraints, and ultimately adoption of causal models, offers a path forward for fundamental and applied research. Most notably, while these advances can change the way science is carried out in ways we cannot imagine, machine learning is not going to substitute science any time soon.