论文标题

使用机器学习预测蠕变故障时间

Prediction of creep failure time using machine learning

论文作者

Biswas, Soumyajyoti, Castellanos, David F., Zaiser, Michael

论文摘要

无序材料上的亚临界负荷会诱发蠕变损伤。在这种情况下,蠕变率显示出三个暂时性状态。最初的减速状态,然后是稳态状态和加速蠕变的阶段,最终导致灾难性崩溃。由于蠕变率的统计规​​律,蠕变速率的时间演变通常用于预测剩余寿命,直到灾难性分解为止。但是,在样本无序中,这些努力取得了有限的成功。然而,很明显,随着故障的发生,损坏变得越来越空间相关,并且声发射的时空模式(作为损害积累活动的代理)可能会反映这种相关性。但是,由于数据的高维度和相关性的复杂性质,识别上述相关性并因此并不直接,因此失败的预信号。在这里,我们使用监督的机器学习来估计剩余的时间到无序材料样品的失败。机器学习算法用作输入的时间信号,由中尺度弹性塑料模型提供的时间信号用于无序固体​​中蠕变损伤的演变。机器学习算法非常适合评估从剪切样品的声学排放的时间序列中的邻近性。我们表明,对于较高的疾病,材料相对可预测,而对于较大的系统尺寸,材料的预测相对较小。我们发现,在绝大多数情况下,机器学习预测的表现要比文献中提出的其他预测方法要好得多。

A subcritical load on a disordered material can induce creep damage. The creep rate in this case exhibits three temporal regimes viz. an initial decelerating regime followed by a steady-state regime and a stage of accelerating creep that ultimately leads to catastrophic breakdown. Due to the statistical regularities in the creep rate, the time evolution of creep rate has often been used to predict residual lifetime until catastrophic breakdown. However, in disordered samples, these efforts met with limited success. Nevertheless, it is clear that as the failure is approached, the damage become increasingly spatially correlated, and the spatio-temporal patterns of acoustic emission, which serve as a proxy for damage accumulation activity, are likely to mirror such correlations. However, due to the high dimensionality of the data and the complex nature of the correlations it is not straightforward to identify the said correlations and thereby the precursory signals of failure. Here we use supervised machine learning to estimate the remaining time to failure of samples of disordered materials. The machine learning algorithm uses as input the temporal signal provided by a mesoscale elastoplastic model for the evolution of creep damage in disordered solids. Machine learning algorithms are well-suited for assessing the proximity to failure from the time series of the acoustic emissions of sheared samples. We show that materials are relatively more predictable for higher disorder while are relatively less predictable for larger system sizes. We find that machine learning predictions, in the vast majority of cases, perform substantially better than other prediction approaches proposed in the literature.

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