论文标题
COVID-19的反应扩散空间建模:希腊和安达卢西亚作为案例
Reaction-diffusion spatial modeling of COVID-19: Greece and Andalusia as case examples
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究了Covid-19在两个地区的爆发的空间建模:西班牙安达卢西亚的自治社区和希腊大陆。我们从一个0D隔室流行病学模型开始,该模型由易感性,暴露,无症状,(症状)感染,住院,恢复和已故人群组成。我们强调了病毒潜伏期的重要性和无症状人群的关键作用。我们通过将预测与被感染的累积数量和死亡总数进行比较,通过最小化预测数据和观察到的数据之间的差异的差异来优化两个区域的模型参数。我们考虑模型预测对模型参数和初始条件合理变化的敏感性,以解决参数可识别性问题。我们通过响应于遏制措施而产生的病毒传递速率的时间变化来对流行病的质量前和分量后的演变进行建模。随后,开发了以反应扩散方程式的0D模型的空间分布式版本。我们认为,在感染的初始局部播种后,其扩散受无症状和有症状感染种群的扩散(和0D模型“反应”)的控制,这随着施加的限制性措施而降低。我们插入了两个区域的地图,然后将人口密度数据进口到COMSOL,随后被用于以数值方式求解模型PDE。在讨论如何将0D模型适应此空间设置的情况下,我们表明这些模型具有巨大的潜力,可以捕获两个区域中大流行的混合,0D描述和空间扩张。还探讨了模型假设对未来工作的潜在改进的静脉。
We examine the spatial modeling of the outbreak of COVID-19 in two regions: the autonomous community of Andalusia in Spain and the mainland of Greece. We start with a 0D compartmental epidemiological model consisting of Susceptible, Exposed, Asymptomatic, (symptomatically) Infected, Hospitalized, Recovered, and deceased populations. We emphasize the importance of the viral latent period and the key role of an asymptomatic population. We optimize model parameters for both regions by comparing predictions to the cumulative number of infected and total number of deaths via minimizing the $\ell^2$ norm of the difference between predictions and observed data. We consider the sensitivity of model predictions on reasonable variations of model parameters and initial conditions, addressing issues of parameter identifiability. We model both pre-quarantine and post-quarantine evolution of the epidemic by a time-dependent change of the viral transmission rates that arises in response to containment measures. Subsequently, a spatially distributed version of the 0D model in the form of reaction-diffusion equations is developed. We consider that, after an initial localized seeding of the infection, its spread is governed by the diffusion (and 0D model "reactions") of the asymptomatic and symptomatically infected populations, which decrease with the imposed restrictive measures. We inserted the maps of the two regions, and we imported population-density data into COMSOL, which was subsequently used to solve numerically the model PDEs. Upon discussing how to adapt the 0D model to this spatial setting, we show that these models bear significant potential towards capturing both the well-mixed, 0D description and the spatial expansion of the pandemic in the two regions. Veins of potential refinement of the model assumptions towards future work are also explored.