论文标题
Covid-19的Kaplan-Meier类型生存曲线：基于健康数据的决策工具
Kaplan-Meier type survival curves for COVID-19: a health data based decision-making tool
论文作者
论文摘要
各国正在使用不同的方法记录有关Covid-19的全球传播的健康信息，有时几天后更改规则。他们都在发布感染，治愈和死亡的新人的数量以及一些补充数据。这些数字通常以不均匀的方式记录，并且与这些变量的标准定义不匹配。但是，在本文中，我们表明使用它们计算的Kaplan-Meier曲线可以提供有关不同国家疾病动态的有用信息。我们的目的是提出一个强大而简单的模型，以显示动态过程演变的某些特征，表明国家之间的进化差异反映在相应的Kaplan-Meier-type曲线中。我们比较到目前为止受影响最大的国家获得的曲线，提出了对区分它们的财产的可能解释。
Countries are recording health information on the global spread of COVID-19 using different methods, sometimes changing the rules after a few days. They are all publishing the number of new individuals infected, cured and dead, along with some supplementary data. These figures are often recorded in a non-uniform manner and do not match the standard definitions of these variables. However, in this paper we show that the Kaplan-Meier curves calculated with them could provide useful information about the dynamics of the disease in different countries. Our aim is to present a robust and simple model to show certain characteristics of the evolution of the dynamic process, showing that the differences of evolution among the countries is reflected in the corresponding Kaplan-Meier-type curves. We compare the curves obtained for the most affected countries so far, proposing possible interpretations of the properties that distinguish them.
