论文标题

繁荣,胸围和比特币:比特币泡作为创新加速器

Boom, Bust, and Bitcoin: Bitcoin-Bubbles As Innovation Accelerators

论文作者

Huber, Tobias A., Sornette, Didier

论文摘要

比特币代表了过去几十年中最有趣的技术突破和社会经济实验之一。在本文中,我们通过分析其社会动态来研究投机气泡在比特币技术采用过程中的作用。我们追踪比特币的起源,并剖析其技术经济创新的性质。特别是,我们对推动比特币价格和网络效应的技术经济反馈循环进行了分析。基于我们对比特币的分析,我们测试并进一步完善了社会泡沫假说,该假设认为泡沫构成了技术创新过程中的重要组成部分。我们认为,自成立以来过去的十年中,重复和指数增加了一系列气泡和炒作周期的层次结构,已经发生了比特币。

Bitcoin represents one of the most interesting technological breakthroughs and socio-economic experiments of the last decades. In this paper, we examine the role of speculative bubbles in the process of Bitcoin's technological adoption by analyzing its social dynamics. We trace Bitcoin's genesis and dissect the nature of its techno-economic innovation. In particular, we present an analysis of the techno-economic feedback loops that drive Bitcoin's price and network effects. Based on our analysis of Bitcoin, we test and further refine the Social Bubble Hypothesis, which holds that bubbles constitute an essential component in the process of technological innovation. We argue that a hierarchy of repeating and exponentially increasing series of bubbles and hype cycles, which has occurred over the past decade since its inception, has bootstrapped Bitcoin into existence.

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