论文标题
一个猜想的实验，以观察流行病中有条件锁定的影响
A Conjectural Experiment to Observe the Effect of Conditional locked-down in an Epidemic
论文作者
论文摘要
在诸如Covid-19之类的大流行中，有许多低收入国家无法在检测到的情况下完全锁定。爆发后，锁定的锁定可能导致整个欠发达国家地区的饥荒。因此，已经通过在5种不同的情况下应用特定的锁定时期（30天）来研究了一种流行病的猜想。 SEIR的随机方法（易感，暴露，感染和恢复）模型已用于评估锁定锁定的动力学和效果。据观察，存在适当的时期，可以在易感性逃脱感染的地方进行锁定。还已经研究了锁定锁定的早期（一旦被检测到的案件的估计峰值而没有被锁定的案件的估计峰值）的效果，也已经进行了研究，发现锁定锁定的后期锁定的后期实施将花费最少的时间才能结束流行病。对于所有考虑的情况，也发现CFR（病例死亡率）从7.55到8.02不等。
In a pandemic like Covid-19, there are many countries of lower-earning cannot provide a complete locked-down within the duration of the detected case. The locked-down may result in famine throughout the region of underdeveloped countries after the outbreak. So, a conjectural setup of an epidemic has been studied by applying specific period of locked-down (30 days) in 5 different scenarios. The stochastic approach to the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered) model has been used to evaluate the dynamics and the effects of locked-down. It is observed that there exist a suitable period to apply locked-down where more susceptible escape from the infection. The effect of the early (as soon as the infected case detected) and late (with respect to the estimated peak of detected cases for no locked-down) implementation of the locked-down has also been studied and found that the late implementation of locked-down will take the least time to end the epidemic. The CFR (Case Fatality Rate) has also been found to be varied from 7.55 to 8.02 for all the considered scenarios.
