论文标题

危机时期的非广泛价值估计

Non-Extensive Value-at-Risk Estimation During Times of Crisis

论文作者

Hajihasani, Ahmad, Namaki, Ali, Asadi, Nazanin, Tehrani, Reza

论文摘要

价值风险是研究人员和从业人员广泛使用的重要主题之一,用于衡量和管理金融市场的不确定性。尽管价值风险是一种常见的风险控制工具,但对其性能有批评。在这项研究中已经研究了这些案例之一,是危机时期的价值低估。在这些时期,市场的非高斯行为加剧,正常模型的估计价值高于实际值。实际上,在危机时期,财务回报系列中极端价值的概率密度增加,而回报系列的这种重尾行为降低了正常的价值风险估计模型的准确性。 Tsallis Entropy框架和非扩展统计方法是一种可用于描述回归系列非高斯行为的潜在方法。在本文中,我们在危机时期使用了非扩展价值来分析金融市场的行为。通过应用Q-Gaussian的概率密度函数,与正常模型相比,我们可以看到更好的价值估计值,尤其是在危机时期。我们表明,Q-Gaussian模型比正常模型更好地估计了风险的价值。同样,我们在成熟的市场中看到,很明显,在危机时期,正常状况和非扩展方法之间风险的价值差异增加了一个以上的标准偏差,但是在新兴市场中,我们看不到特定的模式。

Value-at-risk is one of the important subjects that extensively used by researchers and practitioners for measuring and managing uncertainty in financial markets. Although value-at-risk is a common risk control instrument, but there are criticisms about its performance. One of these cases, which has been studied in this research, is the value-at-risk underestimation during times of crisis. In these periods, the non-Gaussian behavior of markets intensifies and the estimated value-at-risks by normal models are lower than the real values. In fact, during times of crisis, the probability density of extreme values in financial return series increases and this heavy-tailed behavior of return series reduces the accuracy of the normal value-at-risk estimation models. A potential approach that can be used to describe non-Gaussian behavior of return series, is Tsallis entropy framework and non-extensive statistical methods. In this paper, we have used non-extensive value at risk model for analyzing the behavior of financial markets during times of crisis. By applying q-Gaussian probability density function, we can see a better value-at-risk estimation in comparison with the normal models, especially during times of crisis. We showed that q-Gaussian model estimates value-at-risk better than normal model. Also we saw in the mature markets, it is obvious that the difference of value-at-risk between normal condition and non-extensive approach increase more than one standard deviation during times of crisis, but in the emerging markets we cannot see a specific pattern.

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