论文标题
冠状动脉：使用间接报告的调查来估计流行病的发生率和演变
CoronaSurveys: Using Surveys with Indirect Reporting to Estimate the Incidence and Evolution of Epidemics
论文作者
论文摘要
世界正遭受由SARS-COV-2病毒引起的称为Covid-19的大流行。国家政府由于资源和测试有限而在评估流行病的范围内遇到问题。在低收入和中等收入国家（LMIC）中，这个问题尤其严重。因此，任何简单，廉价且灵活的方法，用于评估具有合理准确性水平的给定国家中流行病的发生率和演变都是有用的。在本文中，我们提出了一种基于（匿名）调查的技术，其中参与者报告了他们的联系的健康状况。这种间接的报告技术在文献中称为网络扩展方法，保留了参与者及其联系的隐私，并从较大人群中收集信息（与单个调查相比）。该技术已部署在Coronasurveys项目中，该项目已经收集了COVID-19-19的大流行报告已有两个多月了。 Coronasurveys获得的结果显示了该方法的功能和灵活性，这表明它可能是LMIC的廉价且强大的工具。
The world is suffering from a pandemic called COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. National governments have problems evaluating the reach of the epidemic, due to having limited resources and tests at their disposal. This problem is especially acute in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Hence, any simple, cheap and flexible means of evaluating the incidence and evolution of the epidemic in a given country with a reasonable level of accuracy is useful. In this paper, we propose a technique based on (anonymous) surveys in which participants report on the health status of their contacts. This indirect reporting technique, known in the literature as network scale-up method, preserves the privacy of the participants and their contacts, and collects information from a larger fraction of the population (as compared to individual surveys). This technique has been deployed in the CoronaSurveys project, which has been collecting reports for the COVID-19 pandemic for more than two months. Results obtained by CoronaSurveys show the power and flexibility of the approach, suggesting that it could be an inexpensive and powerful tool for LMICs.
