论文标题
量化南非锁定制度,SARS-COV-2大流行以及他们工作所需的免疫力水平
Quantification of the South African Lockdown Regimes, for the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic, and the Levels of Immunity They Require to Work
论文作者
论文摘要
这项研究量化了SARS-COV-2大流行的各种南非锁定制度,就基本的繁殖编号($ r_0 $)而言。它进一步计算了这些自称锁定制度开始起作用所需的免疫力水平,并预测感知值的值,如果感染被低估了10倍。后者的结果令人信服。第一个级别5锁定是基于有限的知识来遏制高度传染性的SARS-COV-2病毒的英勇尝试。它的基本繁殖编号($ r_0 = 1.93 $)从来没有接近少于统一的要求。显然,可以预见的是,随后的,较低的锁定水平也适用。发现3级锁定的基本复制号为$ 2.34 $,而4级锁定的$ 1.69 $的基本复制号。因此,建议的是,级别的4锁定可能比“难度更高”,尽管其基本复制数字可能与新的数据相关联,或者在公众的调整方面,或者在新的正常设置中的调整可能会相关,或者在新的情况下,该级别的5级锁定可能比“更难的”锁定,或者是在新常态的情况下进行了错误的调整。在瑞典背景下,大流行的基本繁殖数量为$ 3.16 $。因此,锁定量有助于确保医疗系统没有淹没,购买了宝贵的时间来准备和提供有用的数据。尽管如此,锁定仍在实现任何目标减少大流行的目标方面发生了重大失败。
This research quantifies the various South African lockdown regimes, for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, in terms of the basic reproduction number, $r_0$. It further calculates the levels of immunity required for these selfsame lockdown regimes to begin to work and predicts perceived values, should infections have been underestimated by a factor of 10. The latter results are compelling. The first, level-5 lockdown was a valiant attempt to contain the highly infectious, SARS-CoV-2 virus, based on a limited knowledge. Its basic reproduction number ($r_0 = 1.93$) never came anywhere close to the requirement of being less than unity. Obviously, it could be anticipated that the same would apply for subsequent, lower levels of lockdown. The basic reproduction number for the level-3 lockdown was found to be $2.34$ and that of the level-4 lockdown, $1.69$.The suggestion is therefore that the level-4 lockdown might have been marginally `smarter' than the `harder', level-5 lockdown, although its basic reproduction number may merely reflect an adjustment by the public to the new normal, or the ever-present error associated with data sets, in general. The pandemic's basic reproduction number was calculated to be $3.16$, in the Swedish context. The lockdowns therefore served to ensure that the medical system was not overwhelmed, bought it valuable time to prepare and provided useful data. The lockdowns nonetheless failed significantly in meeting any objective to curtail the pandemic.