论文标题
基于14个国家
Quantitative Relationship between Population Mobility and COVID-19 Growth Rate based on 14 Countries
论文作者
论文摘要
这项研究开发了一个框架，用于量化由于社会疏远对199的感染增长率而导致的人口流动变化的影响。使用易感感染的（SIR）流行病学模型，我们确定在某些温和的假设下，COVID-19死亡的生长速率是延迟的近似近似值，这是Covid-19感染的增长率的近似值。然后，我们假设COVID-19感染的增长率是人口流动性的函数，这导致了一个统计模型，该模型可以预测Covid-19死亡的增长率是人口流动性的延迟功能。统计模型的参数直接揭示了感染的增长率，依赖于移动性的传输速率，独立于移动性的恢复速率和关键迁移率，在此下面，Covid-19的增长率在此下为负。截至2020年5月6日，我们将提议的统计模型安装在14个国家 /地区超过3天的14个国家 /地区的公开数据上。公开可用的Google移动性指数（GMI）被用作国家级别的人口流动性的量度。我们的结果表明，可以准确估计CoVID-19死亡的增长率是GMI的运输类别的二次功能（调整后的R平方= 0.784）。临界迁移率的估计95％置信区间在19.19前的迁移率的36.1％和47.6％之间。该结果表明，需要大幅度降低人口迁移率，以扭转Covid-19-19的流行病的增长。此外，本文建立的定量关系表明，诸如GMI之类的人口级指标（例如GMI）可以是COVID-19-19的流行过程的有用指标。
This study develops a framework for quantification of the impact of changes in population mobility due to social distancing on the COVID-19 infection growth rate. Using the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model we establish that under some mild assumptions the growth rate of COVID-19 deaths is a time-delayed approximation of the growth rate of COVID-19 infections. We then hypothesize that the growth rate of COVID-19 infections is a function of population mobility, which leads to a statistical model that predicts the growth rate of COVID-19 deaths as a delayed function of population mobility. The parameters of the statistical model directly reveal the growth rate of infections, the mobility-dependent transmission rate, the mobility-independent recovery rate, and the critical mobility, below which COVID-19 growth rate becomes negative. We fitted the proposed statistical model on publicly available data from 14 countries where daily death counts exceeded 100 for more than 3 days as of May 6th, 2020. The publicly available Google Mobility Index (GMI) was used as a measure of population mobility at the country level. Our results show that the growth rate of COVID-19 deaths can be accurately estimated 20 days ahead as a quadratic function of the transit category of GMI (adjusted R-squared = 0.784). The estimated 95% confidence interval for the critical mobility is in the range between 36.1% and 47.6% of the pre-COVID-19 mobility. This result indicates that a significant reduction in population mobility is needed to reverse the growth of COVID-19 epidemic. Moreover, the quantitative relationship established herein suggests that a readily available, population-level metric such as GMI can be a useful indicator of the course of COVID-19 epidemic.
