论文标题
网络模型和COVID-19与社会疏远的传播的分析
Network model and analysis of the spread of Covid-19 with social distancing
论文作者
论文摘要
对COVID-19大流行的首次缓解反应是尽可能限制人与人之间的互动。这是由于许多工作场所的暂时关闭而实现的，人们必须跟随社会疏远。网络是代表人们之间交互和暂时切断这些互动的好方法。在这里，我们提出了人类相互作用的网络模型，该模型可能是疾病传播的介体。该网络的节点是个人，不同类型的边缘表示家庭集团，工作场所互动，基本需求引起的互动以及社交互动。每个人都可以在四个州之一：易感，感染，免疫和死亡。网络和疾病参数由COVID-19的现有文献告知。使用此模型，我们在存在各种缓解情况下模拟传染病的传播。例如，锁定是通过删除表示非必需交互的边缘来实现的。我们通过在扩散阶段的不同阶段与基本和有效的繁殖数量匹配实际数据来验证模拟结果。我们还通过改变传输速率来逐渐开放，但人们遵循预防措施（例如戴口罩等）来模拟锁定速度缓慢提升的不同可能性。我们在每种情况下都对第二波感染的概率和强度进行了预测。
The first mitigation response to the Covid-19 pandemic was to limit person-to-person interaction as much as possible. This was implemented by the temporary closing of many workplaces and people were required to follow social distancing. Networks are a great way to represent interactions among people and the temporary severing of these interactions. Here, we present a network model of human-human interactions that could be mediators of disease spread. The nodes of this network are individuals and different types of edges denote family cliques, workplace interactions, interactions arising from essential needs, and social interactions. Each individual can be in one of four states: susceptible, infected, immune, and dead. The network and the disease parameters are informed by the existing literature on Covid-19. Using this model, we simulate the spread of an infectious disease in the presence of various mitigation scenarios. For example, lockdown is implemented by deleting edges that denote non-essential interactions. We validate the simulation results with the real data by matching the basic and effective reproduction numbers during different phases of the spread. We also simulate different possibilities of the slow lifting of the lockdown by varying the transmission rate as facilities are slowly opened but people follow prevention measures like wearing masks etc. We make predictions on the probability and intensity of a second wave of infection in each of these scenarios.
