论文标题
美联储关于通货膨胀的观点的模型
A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation
论文作者
论文摘要
我们开发了一个中型半结构时间序列的通货膨胀动态模型，该模型与通常由中央银行表达的观点一致，即三个组成部分很重要：由长期期望，菲利普斯曲线和能源价格临时波动的趋势。我们发现，稳定的长期通货膨胀趋势和良好的陡峭菲利普斯曲线与数据一致，但它们意味着由于新千年和能源价格不仅通过菲利普斯曲线，而且还通过独立的预期渠道影响了标题通货膨胀以来的潜在产出下降。高频能源价格周期可能与影响商品市场的全球因素有关，并且经常使菲利普斯曲线压倒，从而解释了过去十年的通货膨胀难题。
We develop a medium-size semi-structural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view - often expressed by central banks - that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a Phillips curve and temporary fluctuations in energy prices. We find that a stable long-term inflation trend and a well identified steep Phillips curve are consistent with the data, but they imply potential output declining since the new millennium and energy prices affecting headline inflation not only via the Phillips curve but also via an independent expectational channel. A high-frequency energy price cycle can be related to global factors affecting the commodity market, and often overpowers the Phillips curve thereby explaining the inflation puzzles of the last ten years.
