论文标题
免疫力丧失的隔室模型：COVID-19的分析和参数估计
Compartmental model with loss of immunity: analysis and parameters estimation for Covid-19
论文作者
论文摘要
Covid-19的爆发使世界陷入了前所未有的健康和经济危机。为了回应全世界的紧急研究人员，正在深入研究COVID-19大流行动力学。在这项工作中，提出了SIRSI隔室模型，这是对已知经典SIR模型的修改。拟议的SIRSI模型考虑了人群中免疫的差异，以及未报告或无症状病例的可能性。该模型被调整为巴西的圣保罗州的三个主要城市，即圣保罗，桑托斯和坎皮纳斯，提供了有关爆发的持续时间和高峰的估计。
The outbreak of Covid-19 led the world to an unprecedent health and economical crisis. In an attempt to responde to this emergency researchers worldwide are intensively studying the Covid-19 pandemic dynamics. In this work, a SIRSi compartmental model is proposed, which is a modification of the known classical SIR model. The proposed SIRSi model considers differences in the immunization within a population, and the possibility of unreported or asymptomatic cases. The model is adjusted to three major cities of São Paulo State, in Brazil, namely, São Paulo, Santos and Campinas, providing estimates on the duration and peaks of the outbreak.
