论文标题
太阳耀斑的全球能量学。 xi。耀斑的幅度预测
Global Energetics of Solar Flares. XI. Flare Magnitude Predictions of the GOES-Class
论文作者
论文摘要
在这项研究中，我们确定了可观察到的太阳耀斑的缩放关系，可用于预测太阳耀斑的高级幅度的上限。耀斑预测方案基于缓慢变化的势能$ e_p（t）$的缩放，该势能在$ΔT\ le $ 24小时的间隔内及时推断。耗散能量$ e_ {diss} $缩放的观察到的缩放为$ e_ {diss} \ propto e_p^{1.32} $。此外，耀斑量的观察缩放关系，$ v \ propto e_ {diss}^{1.17} $，多热能量，$ e_ {th} \ propto v^{0.76} $，flare排放量$ em \ propto $ em \ propto e_ e _ propto e _ { Flux，$ f_8（t）\ propto e_p（t）^{0.92} $，然后我们允许我们预测外推时间窗口中goss类耀斑幅度的上限。我们发现观察到的和预测的Gos类耀斑幅度（在172 x和M级事件中）之间有一个良好的相关性（CCC $ \约0.7 $）。这是第一种采用观察到的物理耀斑参数的缩放定律来预测的算法，这是一种重要功能，它是基于在太空天气预测中使用的机器学习算法的先前耀斑预测方法的重要功能。
In this study we determine scaling relationships of observed solar flares that can be used to predict upper limits of the GOES-class magnitude of solar flares. The flare prediction scheme is based on the scaling of the slowly-varying potential energy $E_p(t)$, which is extrapolated in time over an interval of $Δt \le$ 24 hrs. The observed scaling of the dissipated energy $E_{diss}$ scales with the potential field energy as $E_{diss} \propto E_p^{1.32}$. In addition, the observed scaling relationship of the flare volume, $V \propto E_{diss}^{1.17}$, the multi-thermal energy, $E_{th} \propto V^{0.76}$, the flare emission measure $EM \propto E_{th}^{0.79}$, the EM-weighted temperature $T_{w}$, and the GOES flux, $F_8(t) \propto E_p(t)^{0.92}$, allows us then to predict an upper limit of the GOES-class flare magnitude in the extrapolated time window. We find a good correlation (CCC$\approx 0.7$) between the observed and predicted GOES-class flare magnitudes (in 172 X and M-class events). This is the first algorithm that employs observed scaling laws of physical flare parameters to predict GOES flux upper limits, an important capability that complements previous flare prediction methods based on machine-learning algorithms used in space weather forecasting.
