论文标题

网络保险的双变量复合动态传染过程

A Bivariate Compound Dynamic Contagion Process for Cyber Insurance

论文作者

Jang, Jiwook, Oh, Rosy

论文摘要

随着公司和政府变得更加数字化,它们变得容易受到各种形式的网络攻击。网络保险产品已被用作风险管理工具,但其定价并不能反映实际风险,包括多种灾难性和感染性损失。对于网络事件的总损失的建模,在本文中,我们介绍了双变量复合动态传播过程,其中双变量动态传播过程是一个点过程,其中包括包括外部噪声Cox过程和两个单独的自我肥料的外部噪声cox过程分布的关节跳跃,该过程是根据分支机构分布式的。我们基于Davis(1984)开发的分段确定性马尔可夫过程以及Dassios和Zhao(2011)开发的单变量动态传播过程理论,从系统地分析了这些过程的理论分布特性。提出了复合过程及其时刻的拉普拉斯变换的分析表达,这有可能适用于信用,保险,市场和其他运营风险的各种问题。作为此过程的应用,我们根据其时刻提供保险费计算。数值示例表明,该化合物过程可用于建模网络事件的骨料损失。我们还提供了用于统计分析,进一步业务应用和研究的仿真算法。

As corporates and governments become more digital, they become vulnerable to various forms of cyber attack. Cyber insurance products have been used as risk management tools, yet their pricing does not reflect actual risk, including that of multiple, catastrophic and contagious losses. For the modelling of aggregate losses from cyber events, in this paper we introduce a bivariate compound dynamic contagion process, where the bivariate dynamic contagion process is a point process that includes both externally excited joint jumps, which are distributed according to a shot noise Cox process and two separate self-excited jumps, which are distributed according to the branching structure of a Hawkes process with an exponential fertility rate, respectively. We analyse the theoretical distributional properties for these processes systematically, based on the piecewise deterministic Markov process developed by Davis (1984) and the univariate dynamic contagion process theory developed by Dassios and Zhao (2011). The analytic expression of the Laplace transform of the compound process and its moments are presented, which have the potential to be applicable to a variety of problems in credit, insurance, market and other operational risks. As an application of this process, we provide insurance premium calculations based on its moments. Numerical examples show that this compound process can be used for the modelling of aggregate losses from cyber events. We also provide the simulation algorithm for statistical analysis, further business applications and research.

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