论文标题
COVID-19感染的分形观点
A fractal viewpoint to COVID-19 infection
论文作者
论文摘要
控制Covid-19-Pandemics的中心工具之一是了解其传播动态。在这里，我们开发了一个分形模型，能够在每日新病例中描述这种动态，并为某些预测提供定量标准。我们使用构型衍生物和分形时间尺度提出了分形动力学模型。获得了分形方程的burr-XII形溶液。使用来自几个国家 /地区的数据对模型进行了测试，表明单个功能能够描述爆发的非常不同的形状。提出和讨论了这些国家爆发的多种行为。此外，还获得了确定大流行峰的存在的标准，并获得了达到牛群免疫力的时间的表达。
One of the central tools to control the COVID-19 pandemics is the knowledge of its spreading dynamics. Here we develop a fractal model capable of describe this dynamics, in term of daily new cases, and provide quantitative criteria for some predictions. We propose a fractal dynamical model using conformed derivative and fractal time scale. A Burr-XII shaped solution of the fractal-like equation is obtained. The model is tested using data from several countries, showing that a single function is able to describe very different shapes of the outbreak. The diverse behavior of the outbreak on those countries is presented and discussed. Moreover, a criterion to determine the existence of the pandemic peak and a expression to find the time to reach herd immunity are also obtained.
