论文标题

建模控制,锁定\&退出策略在印度大流行

Modeling Control, Lockdown \& Exit Strategies for COVID-19 Pandemic in India

论文作者

Barman, Madhab, Nayak, Snigdhashree, Yadav, Manoj K., Raha, Soumyendu, Mishra, Nachiketa

论文摘要

COVID-19-一种病毒感染疾病 - 迅速成为全球大流行,全球数百万人死亡。这种疾病的症状差异很大。根据症状,感染者被广泛分为两类,即无症状和有症状。无症状的个体表现出轻度或没有症状,但继续将感染传播给其他健康的个体。无症状感染的这一特定方面在管理和控制传染病的传播方面构成了主要障碍。在本文中,我们试图根据各种干预策略在数学上对19号共同-19在印度的传播进行建模。我们认为SEIR型流行病学模型与印度特定的社会接触矩阵合并,代表不同年龄段的人群之间的接触结构。广泛研究了各种因素,例如存在渐近个体,锁定策略,社会距离实践,隔离和住院治疗对疾病传播的影响。我们的模型的数值模拟与印度的真实共同数据数据匹配,直到2020年5月15日,目的是估计模型参数。可以看到,我们与区域锁定的模型可以为2020年7月20日提供了体面的预测。

COVID-19--a viral infectious disease--has quickly emerged as a global pandemic infecting millions of people with a significant number of deaths across the globe. The symptoms of this disease vary widely. Depending on the symptoms an infected person is broadly classified into two categories namely, asymptomatic and symptomatic. Asymptomatic individuals display mild or no symptoms but continue to transmit the infection to otherwise healthy individuals. This particular aspect of asymptomatic infection poses a major obstacle in managing and controlling the transmission of the infectious disease. In this paper, we attempt to mathematically model the spread of COVID-19 in India under various intervention strategies. We consider SEIR type epidemiological models, incorporated with India specific social contact matrix representing contact structures among different age groups of the population. Impact of various factors such as presence of asymptotic individuals, lockdown strategies, social distancing practices, quarantine, and hospitalization on the disease transmission is extensively studied. Numerical simulation of our model is matched with the real COVID-19 data of India till May 15, 2020 for the purpose of estimating the model parameters. Our model with zone-wise lockdown is seen to give a decent prediction for July 20, 2020.

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