论文标题
使用陆地灭绝历史估算生存概率以寻找外星人的生命
Estimating survival probability using the terrestrial extinction history for the search for extraterrestrial life
论文作者
论文摘要
迄今为止，已经发现了几个系外行星，下一步是寻找外星人的生活。但是，很难估计持寿命的系外行星的数量，因为我们唯一的模板是基于地球上的生命。在本文中，引入了一种新的方法来估计地球生命在陆地灭绝史上从出生到现在幸存下来的可能性。通过对数正态函数有效地对植物学EON期间的灭绝强度的直方图进行了建模，这支持了陆地灭绝是一个随机乘法过程的想法。假设拟合函数是每单位时间灭绝强度的概率密度函数，那么从生命开始到现在，地球上估计的生存概率为〜0.15。此值可能是对Drake方程中$ f_i $的限制，这有助于估计生命超级行星的数量。
Several exoplanets have been discovered to date, and the next step is the search for extraterrestrial life. However, it is difficult to estimate the number of life-bearing exoplanets because our only template is based on life on Earth. In this paper, a new approach is introduced to estimate the probability that life on Earth has survived from birth to the present based on its terrestrial extinction history. A histogram of the extinction intensity during the Phanerozoic Eon is modeled effectively with a log-normal function, supporting the idea that terrestrial extinction is a random multiplicative process. Assuming that the fitted function is a probability density function of extinction intensity per unit time, the estimated survival probability of life on Earth is ~0.15 from the beginning of life to the present. This value can be a constraint on $f_i$ in the Drake equation, which contributes to estimating the number of life-bearing exoplanets.
