论文标题
人为气候变化对全球农业生产力的历史影响
The Historical Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Global Agricultural Productivity
论文作者
论文摘要
农业研究促进了生产率的增长，但是人为气候变化对这种增长的历史影响尚未量化。我们开发了对全球农业全因素生产率（TFP）的天气影响的强大计量经济学模型，并将该模型与反事实气候场景相结合，以评估过去气候趋势对TFP的影响。我们的基线模型表明，自1961年以来，人为气候变化已将全球农业TFP降低了约21％，这是一种减缓，相当于失去了最后9年的生产率增长。在非洲和拉丁美洲和加勒比海等暖地区，这种影响要严重得多（降低了约30-33％）。我们还发现，全球农业越来越容易受到持续的气候变化的影响。
Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the historical influence of anthropogenic climate change on that growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust econometric model of weather effects on global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) and combine this model with counterfactual climate scenarios to evaluate impacts of past climate trends on TFP. Our baseline model indicates that anthropogenic climate change has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 9 years of productivity growth. The effect is substantially more severe (a reduction of ~30-33%) in warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change.
