论文标题

大量种群中物种灭绝的随机物理

Stochastic physics of species extinctions in a large population

论文作者

Sudakov, Ivan, Vakulenko, Sergey A., Bruun, John T.

论文摘要

物种灭绝是影响地球生命多样性的核心过程。基于生态位的理论将物种之间的竞争视为导致物种灭绝严重程度不同的关键因素。有一些人口动态模型描述了一种简单易懂的资源竞争机制。但是,这些模型无法有效地表征和量化由于环境强迫而出现的大种群中新的新兴灭绝。为了解决这个问题,我们开发了一种随机物理启发的方法,以分析环境强迫如何影响这种模型中物种灭绝的严重程度。这种方法基于随机过程的大偏差理论(Freidlin-Wentzell理论)。我们表明,灭绝的根本可能不同,我们称之为灾难性的灭绝,不对称的灭绝和具有指数较小的概率的灭绝。这些场景的实现取决于环境噪声的特性和壁ni的边界,该壁ches定义了物种生存的域。此外,我们描述了物种灭绝的滞后作用,表明波动可能会导致巨大的后果,即使平均资源供应足以支持人口存活。我们随机物理启发的方法通过会计环境强迫来概括利基理论,并通过可用的数据来查找哪些环境扰动可能会导致灭绝。

Species extinction is a core process that affects the diversity of life on Earth. Competition between species in a population is considered by ecological niche-based theories as a key factor leading to different severity of species extinctions. There are population dynamics models that describe a simple and easily understandable mechanism for resource competition. However, these models can not efficiently characterize and quantify new emergent extinctions in a large population appearing due to environmental forcing. To address this issue we develop a stochastic physics-inspired approach to analyze how environmental forcing influences the severity of species extinctions in such models. This approach is based on the large deviations theory of stochastic processes (the Freidlin-Wentzell theory). We show that there are three possible fundamentally different scenarios of extinctions, which we call catastrophic extinctions, asymmetric ones, and extinctions with exponentially small probabilities. The realization of those scenarios depends on environmental noise properties and the boundaries of niches, which define the domain, where species survive. Furthermore, we describe a hysteresis effect in species extinction showing that fluctuations can lead to dramatic consequences even if an averaged resource supply is sufficient to support population survival. Our stochastic physics-inspired approach generalizes niche theory by accounting environmental forcing and will be useful to find, by available data, which environmental perturbations may induce extinctions.

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