论文标题
社会影响对人群智慧的模棱两可的作用：一种分析方法
The ambiguous role of social influence on the wisdom of crowds: An analytic approach
论文作者
论文摘要
“人群的智慧”是指以下现象，即一组个人在给定问题上的平均意见可能非常接近真正的答案。它需要大量的意见多样性，但是集体错误，平均意见和真实价值之间的差异必须很小。我们考虑了一种随机意见动态，个人可以根据他人的意见（社会影响$α$）改变自己的意见，但在某种程度上也坚持他们的最初意见（个人定罪$β$）。然后，我们为集体误差和群体多样性的动力学得出分析表达式。我们分析了他们的长期行为，以确定两个参数$（α，β）$的影响以及初始意见分布对人群智慧的影响。这使我们能够量化社会影响的模棱两可的作用：只有当最初的集体错误很大时，它有助于改善人群的智慧，但在大多数情况下，它会恶化结果。在这些情况下，个人信念仍然改善了人群的智慧，因为它减轻了社会影响的影响。
"Wisdom of crowds" refers to the phenomenon that the average opinion of a group of individuals on a given question can be very close to the true answer. It requires a large group diversity of opinions, but the collective error, the difference between the average opinion and the true value, has to be small. We consider a stochastic opinion dynamics where individuals can change their opinion based on the opinions of others (social influence $α$), but to some degree also stick to their initial opinion (individual conviction $β$). We then derive analytic expressions for the dynamics of the collective error and the group diversity. We analyze their long-term behavior to determine the impact of the two parameters $(α,β)$ and the initial opinion distribution on the wisdom of crowds. This allows us to quantify the ambiguous role of social influence: only if the initial collective error is large, it helps to improve the wisdom of crowds, but in most cases it deteriorates the outcome. In these cases, individual conviction still improves the wisdom of crowds because it mitigates the impact of social influence.
