论文标题
使用R0的封闭式公式评估非同质种群的干预策略
Assessing Intervention Strategies for Non Homogeneous Populations Using a Closed Form Formula for R0
论文作者
论文摘要
考虑到非均匀种群中易感 - >感染性 - >恢复（SIR）流行病的一般随机模型。异质性在这里是一个非常重要的方面，因为它允许更现实但更复杂的模型。基本的繁殖数$ r_0 $，这表明均质种群爆发的可能性不再表示非均匀模型的爆发的可能性，因为它随着最初感染的情况而变化。因此，我们使用“单独的$ r_0 $”，这是给定最初感染个人的次要情况的预期数量。因此，可以通过减少单个$ r_0 $值的能力来评估干预策略的有效性。还提出了针对完全异质种群的智能疫苗接种计划。它基于单个R0值的递归计算。
A general stochastic model for susceptible -> infective -> recovered (SIR) epidemics in non homogeneous populations is considered. The heterogeneity is a very important aspect here since it allows more realistic but also more complex models. The basic reproduction number $R_0$, an indication of the probability of an outbreak for homogeneous populations does not indicate the probability of an outbreak for non homogeneous models anymore, because it changes with the initially infected case. Therefore, we use "individual $R_0$" that is the expected number of secondary cases for a given initially infected individual. Thus, the effectiveness of intervention strategies can be assessed by their capability to reduce individual $R_0$ values. Also an intelligent vaccination plan for fully heterogeneous populations is proposed. It is based on the recursive calculation of individual R0 values.
