论文标题
一项关于控制Covid-19的锁定措施有效性的研究
A Study on The Effectiveness of Lock-down Measures to Control The Spread of COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
2019 - 2020年冠状病毒病的大流行（Covid-19）是由严重的急性呼吸综合症冠状病毒2（SARS-COV-2）引起的。这种致病性病毒能够通过脆弱人群在孵化阶段渐近地传播。鉴于医疗保健的状况，敦促决策者遏制感染的传播，最大程度地减少对卫生系统的压力并确保公共安全。他们可以使用的最有效的工具是关闭非必需的业务并发出停留家庭订单。在本文中，我们考虑了衡量世界各国政府通过的严格措施有效性的技术。分析诸如锁定措施之类的控制措施的有效性使我们能够了解做出的决定是否最佳，并导致医疗保健系统负担减轻。在具体而言，我们考虑使用合成控制来构建替代方案，并了解如果采用较少严格的措施会对健康产生什么影响。我们对纽约，美国，意大利和印度首都德里的州进行了分析，并展示了与当前情况相比，锁定措施如何有所帮助以及反事实情况。我们表明，在纽约州，死亡人数可能高6倍，在意大利，到2020年6月26日，死亡人数可能高3倍。
The ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019-2020 (COVID-19) is caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This pathogenic virus is able to spread asymptotically during its incubation stage through a vulnerable population. Given the state of healthcare, policymakers were urged to contain the spread of infection, minimize stress on the health systems and ensure public safety. Most effective tool that was at their disposal was to close non-essential business and issue a stay home order. In this paper we consider techniques to measure the effectiveness of stringency measures adopted by governments across the world. Analyzing effectiveness of control measures like lock-down allows us to understand whether the decisions made were optimal and resulted in a reduction of burden on the healthcare system. In specific we consider using a synthetic control to construct alternative scenarios and understand what would have been the effect on health if less stringent measures were adopted. We present analysis for The State of New York, United States, Italy and The Indian capital city Delhi and show how lock-down measures has helped and what the counterfactual scenarios would have been in comparison to the current state of affairs. We show that in The State of New York the number of deaths could have been 6 times higher, and in Italy, the number of deaths could have been 3 times higher by 26th of June, 2020.
