论文标题
COX回归模型用于分析铁路安全性能的应用
Application of the Cox Regression Model for Analysis of Railway Safety Performance
论文作者
论文摘要
不仅在铁路中，评估服务安全性绩效是一项重要任务。例如，重要的是要尽早确定偏差，特别是可能的安全性能恶化，以便早日采取纠正措施。另一方面，评估应该是公平和客观的，并依靠声音和验证的统计方法。这项任务的一种流行手段是趋势分析。本文定义了趋势分析的模型，并比较了不同的方法，例如。 g。经典和贝叶斯在实际数据上的方法。示例表明，特别是对于小样本量，e。 g。当应评估铁路运营商时，贝叶斯先前可能会对结果产生重大影响。
The assessment of in-service safety performance is an important task, not only in railways. For example it is important to identify deviations early, in particular possible deterioration of safety performance, so that corrective actions can be applied early. On the other hand the assessment should be fair and objective and rely on sound and proven statistical methods. A popular means for this task is trend analysis. This paper defines a model for trend analysis and compares different approaches, e. g. classical and Bayes approaches, on real data. The examples show that in particular for small sample sizes, e. g. when railway operators shall be assessed, the Bayesian prior may influence the results significantly.
