论文标题
太阳周期预测中的进展：透视图24-25的黑子周期
Progress in Solar Cycle Predictions: Sunspot Cycles 24-25 in Perspective
论文作者
论文摘要
太阳的动态活性 - 由在其内部起作用的磁性水力动力学机制维持 - 调节空间中的电磁，颗粒和辐射环境。虽然太阳活动在短时间内的变化创造了空间天气，但缓慢的长期调制构成了空间气候的基础。太空天气会影响多样化的太空技术，而太空气候会影响行星气氛和气候。在这些情况下，先验了解太阳活动很重要。但是，预测太阳能策略磁活动仍然是一个杰出的挑战。在这篇综述中，总结了黑子周期24和即将到来的周期25的预测，并进行了严格评估。该分析表明，尽管基于多种技术的预测在太阳周期之间不同意24-25，但基于物理学的太阳周期25的预测已经融合并表明了弱的黑子周期循环25。有人认为，基于物理学的预测中的这种收敛表明对阳性周期可预测性的基本理解中的进展表明。基于这种理解，讨论了与太阳周期预测相关的几个杰出问题的决议。
The dynamic activity of the Sun -- sustained by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in its interior -- modulates the electromagnetic, particulate and radiative environment in space. While solar activity variations on short timescale create space weather, slow long-term modulation forms the basis of space climate. Space weather impacts diverse space-reliant technologies while space climate influences planetary atmospheres and climate. Having prior knowledge of the Sun's activity is important in these contexts. However, forecasting solar-stellar magnetic activity has remained an outstanding challenge. In this review, predictions for sunspot cycle 24 and the upcoming cycle 25 are summarized, and critically assessed. The analysis demonstrates that while predictions based on diverse techniques disagree across solar cycles 24--25, physics-based predictions for solar cycle 25 have converged and indicates a weak sunspot cycle 25. It is argued that this convergence in physics-based predictions is indicative of progress in the fundamental understanding of solar cycle predictability. Based on this understanding, resolutions to several outstanding questions related to solar cycle predictions are discussed.
