论文标题
具有近似模型的反事实和福利分析
Counterfactual and Welfare Analysis with an Approximate Model
论文作者
论文摘要
我们为近似模型提供了反事实和福利分析的概念框架。我们的关键假设是，在新选择下，模型近似误差与观察到的数据相同。将框架应用于Quasilinear实用程序，我们使用近似需求定律以新价格获得数量的界限。然后，我们将捆绑包与价格之间的福利差异之间存在差异。所有界限均可作为线性程序计算。我们提供了详细的分析结果，描述了数据映射如何到界限，包括形状限制，这些限制为插件估算提供了基础。对汽油需求的应用说明了方法。
We propose a conceptual framework for counterfactual and welfare analysis for approximate models. Our key assumption is that model approximation error is the same magnitude at new choices as the observed data. Applying the framework to quasilinear utility, we obtain bounds on quantities at new prices using an approximate law of demand. We then bound utility differences between bundles and welfare differences between prices. All bounds are computable as linear programs. We provide detailed analytical results describing how the data map to the bounds including shape restrictions that provide a foundation for plug-in estimation. An application to gasoline demand illustrates the methodology.
