论文标题
COVID-19峰爆发的时间分析
Temporal Analysis of COVID-19 Peak Outbreak
论文作者
论文摘要
这项研究的目的是探讨如何利用数学模型，特别是易感感染的被感染的（SIR）模型（SIR）模型，以预测从首次报道的病例之日起，在一个兴趣的人群中，COVID-19的峰值爆发时间表如何。直到这项研究的时间，还没有有效且普遍接受的疫苗来控制这种感染的传播和传播。 Covid-19主要通过感染者咳嗽和打喷嚏的呼吸液滴在人群中传播，这些滴水感染了邻近的人。 Covid-19正在世界各地传播。如果卫生政策制定者和医疗专家可以在第一次报告案件后何时发生峰值感染率的早期和及时见解，他们可以计划和优化医疗人员，通风者供应和其他医疗资源，而无需过度税收基础设施。这些预测还可以帮助决策者制定控制流行病的策略，并有可能挽救许多生命。因此，它可以通过利用可用数据来提供可行的见解，从而有助于对Covid-19爆发的可行见解来帮助进行关键的决策过程。
Intent of this research is to explore how mathematical models, specifically Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, can be utilized to forecast peak outbreak timeline of COVID-19 epidemic amongst a population of interest starting from the date of first reported case. Till the time of this research, there was no effective and universally accepted vaccine to control transmission and spread of this infection. COVID-19 primarily spreads in population through respiratory droplets from an infected person cough and sneeze which infects people who are in proximity. COVID-19 is spreading contagiously across the world. If health policy makers and medical experts could get early and timely insights into when peak infection rate would occur after first reported case, they could plan and optimize medical personnel, ventilators supply, and other medical resources without over-taxing the infrastructure. The predictions may also help policymakers devise strategies to control the epidemic, potentially saving many lives. Thus, it can aid in critical decision-making process by providing actionable insights into COVID-19 outbreak by leveraging available data.
