论文标题
稀有事件建模的变分分类
Variational Disentanglement for Rare Event Modeling
论文作者
论文摘要
结合了医疗保健数据的可用性和丰富性的增加以及机器学习方法的当前进展,创造了新的机会来改善临床决策支持系统。但是,在医疗保健风险预测应用中,相对于可用样本量,感兴趣的病例(标签)的案件比例通常非常低。尽管在医疗保健方面非常普遍,但是在许多其他情况下,这种不平衡的分类设置也很普遍且具有挑战性。我们提出了一种动力,我们提出了一种差异分解方法,以半票量的方式从严重失衡的分类问题中的罕见事件中学习。具体而言,我们利用在潜在空间上施加的极端分布行为来从低贫困事件中提取信息,并开发出强大的预测组,该臂加入了广义添加剂模型和等渗神经网的优点。关于合成研究和各种现实世界数据集的结果,包括对Covid-19队列的死亡率预测,表明所提出的方法的表现优于现有替代方案。
Combining the increasing availability and abundance of healthcare data and the current advances in machine learning methods have created renewed opportunities to improve clinical decision support systems. However, in healthcare risk prediction applications, the proportion of cases with the condition (label) of interest is often very low relative to the available sample size. Though very prevalent in healthcare, such imbalanced classification settings are also common and challenging in many other scenarios. So motivated, we propose a variational disentanglement approach to semi-parametrically learn from rare events in heavily imbalanced classification problems. Specifically, we leverage the imposed extreme-distribution behavior on a latent space to extract information from low-prevalence events, and develop a robust prediction arm that joins the merits of the generalized additive model and isotonic neural nets. Results on synthetic studies and diverse real-world datasets, including mortality prediction on a COVID-19 cohort, demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms existing alternatives.