论文标题
网络和站级自行车共享系统预测:旧金山湾地区案例研究
Network and Station-Level Bike-Sharing System Prediction: A San Francisco Bay Area Case Study
论文作者
论文摘要
该论文开发了模型,以建模旧金山湾地区自行车共享系统的自行车可用性,该系统在两个级别上应用机器学习:网络和站点。在车站级别调查BSS是一个完整的问题,它将为决策者,计划者和运营商提供所需的细节水平,以做出重要的选择和结论。我们使用随机森林和最小二乘作为单变量回归算法来对站级别可用自行车的数量进行建模。对于多元回归,我们应用了部分最小二乘回归(PLSR)来减少所需的预测模型并重现网络级别系统中不同站点的时空相互作用。尽管在单变量模型的情况下,预测误差略低,但我们发现网络级预测的多变量模型结果是有希望的,尤其是在空间相关的站点相对较大的系统中。此外,站点分析的结果表明,人口统计信息和其他环境变量是模拟BSS自行车的重要因素。我们还证明了在时间t时在车站级建模的可用自行车对自行车计数模型产生了显着影响。邻居和预测范围时间被发现是重要的预测因子,其中15分钟是最有效的预测范围时间。
The paper develops models for modeling the availability of bikes in the San Francisco Bay Area Bike Share System applying machine learning at two levels: network and station. Investigating BSSs at the station-level is the full problem that would provide policymakers, planners, and operators with the needed level of details to make important choices and conclusions. We used Random Forest and Least-Squares Boosting as univariate regression algorithms to model the number of available bikes at the station-level. For the multivariate regression, we applied Partial Least-Squares Regression (PLSR) to reduce the needed prediction models and reproduce the spatiotemporal interactions in different stations in the system at the network-level. Although prediction errors were slightly lower in the case of univariate models, we found that the multivariate model results were promising for the network-level prediction, especially in systems where there is a relatively large number of stations that are spatially correlated. Moreover, results of the station-level analysis suggested that demographic information and other environmental variables were significant factors to model bikes in BSSs. We also demonstrated that the available bikes modeled at the station-level at time t had a notable influence on the bike count models. Station neighbors and prediction horizon times were found to be significant predictors, with 15 minutes being the most effective prediction horizon time.