论文标题

带有混合预测变量的通用时间序列预测

Universal time-series forecasting with mixture predictors

论文作者

Ryabko, Daniil

论文摘要

这本书致力于顺序概率预测的问题,即预测了过去的观察结果序列的下一个结果的概率。在一个非常通用的环境中考虑了这个问题,该设置统一了常用的概率和非稳定设置,试图对产生观测的机制做出尽可能少的假设。在此问题的各种表述中产生的一种常见形式是混合预测因子的形式,这些形式是由有限或无限的其他预测指标组合形成的,这些预测因素试图结合其预测能力。本书的主要主题是这样的混合预测因子,主要结果证明了该方法在非常普遍的概率环境中的普遍性,但也显示了其一些局限性。尽管所考虑的问题是由实际应用的动机,例如财务,生物学或行为数据,但这种动机是隐式的,并且暴露的所有结果都是理论上的。 该书针对的是研究生和研究人员对依次预测问题感兴趣,更普遍地是在理论上分析机器学习和非参数统计数据的问题,以及这些领域的数学和哲学基础。 该卷中的材料以一种假定熟悉概率和统计概念的方式呈现,直至无限序列空间上的概率分布和包括概率分布。不需要熟悉学习或随机过程的文献。

This book is devoted to the problem of sequential probability forecasting, that is, predicting the probabilities of the next outcome of a growing sequence of observations given the past. This problem is considered in a very general setting that unifies commonly used probabilistic and non-probabilistic settings, trying to make as few as possible assumptions on the mechanism generating the observations. A common form that arises in various formulations of this problem is that of mixture predictors, which are formed as a combination of a finite or infinite set of other predictors attempting to combine their predictive powers. The main subject of this book are such mixture predictors, and the main results demonstrate the universality of this method in a very general probabilistic setting, but also show some of its limitations. While the problems considered are motivated by practical applications, involving, for example, financial, biological or behavioural data, this motivation is left implicit and all the results exposed are theoretical. The book targets graduate students and researchers interested in the problem of sequential prediction, and, more generally, in theoretical analysis of problems in machine learning and non-parametric statistics, as well as mathematical and philosophical foundations of these fields. The material in this volume is presented in a way that presumes familiarity with basic concepts of probability and statistics, up to and including probability distributions over spaces of infinite sequences. Familiarity with the literature on learning or stochastic processes is not required.

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