论文标题
法医家谱的可能性模型
Likelihood Models for Forensic Genealogy
论文作者
论文摘要
在理想化的摩根跨界模型中，我们研究了具有广泛关系的个体（不仅仅是线性后代）之间共享DNA（相同的下降）的概率分布，尤其是先前工作会产生不准确的结果的情况。使用Monte Carlo模拟，我们表明，在所有情况下，只有一个连续拟合参数的特定，复杂的功能形式可以准确地近似分布。对该功能形式的分析表明，它接近正态分布，而不是共享分数f，而是在f的平方根中。我们描述了该变量中的多元普通模型，作为法医族谱中几种一般任务的实用框架，这些框架目前是通过较不准确且不足的方法来完成的。
In the idealized Morgan model of crossover, we study the probability distributions of shared DNA (identical by descent) between individuals having a wide range of relationships (not just lineal descendants), especially cases for which previous work produces inaccurate results. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we show that a particular, complicated functional form with just one continuous fitted parameter accurately approximates the distributions in all cases tried. Analysis of that functional form shows that it is close to a normal distribution, not in shared fraction f, but in the square-root of f. We describe a multivariate normal model in this variable for use as a practical framework for several general tasks in forensic genealogy that are currently done by less-accurate and less well-founded methods.
