论文标题
自回归网络
Autoregressive Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
我们为动态网络过程提出了一个一阶自回旋(即AR(1))模型,其中边缘随时间变化而节点保持不变。该模型明确描述了动态变化。它还促进了简单有效的统计推断方法,包括用于拟合网络模型的诊断检查的排列测试。所提出的模型可以应用于具有各种基础结构但具有独立边缘的网络过程。作为例证,已经对AR(1)随机块模型进行了深入研究,该模型随着时间的流逝而通过过渡概率来表征潜在社区。这导致了一种新的,更有效的光谱聚类算法,用于识别潜在社区。我们得出了有限的样本条件,在该条件下,新定义的光谱聚类算法可以实现社区结构的完美恢复。此外,将变化点的推断纳入了AR(1)随机块模型中,以适应可能的结构变化。我们为更改点的最大似然估计器得出了显式错误率。使用三个真实数据集的应用说明了所提出的AR(1)模型和关联推理方法的相关性和有用性。
We propose a first-order autoregressive (i.e. AR(1)) model for dynamic network processes in which edges change over time while nodes remain unchanged. The model depicts the dynamic changes explicitly. It also facilitates simple and efficient statistical inference methods including a permutation test for diagnostic checking for the fitted network models. The proposed model can be applied to the network processes with various underlying structures but with independent edges. As an illustration, an AR(1) stochastic block model has been investigated in depth, which characterizes the latent communities by the transition probabilities over time. This leads to a new and more effective spectral clustering algorithm for identifying the latent communities. We have derived a finite sample condition under which the perfect recovery of the community structure can be achieved by the newly defined spectral clustering algorithm. Furthermore the inference for a change point is incorporated into the AR(1) stochastic block model to cater for possible structure changes. We have derived the explicit error rates for the maximum likelihood estimator of the change-point. Application with three real data sets illustrates both relevance and usefulness of the proposed AR(1) models and the associate inference methods.