论文标题
不确定性的不确定性：调查经济政策不确定性的假设，注释和文本测量
Uncertainty over Uncertainty: Investigating the Assumptions, Annotations, and Text Measurements of Economic Policy Uncertainty
论文作者
论文摘要
方法和应用在科学中是密不可分的，尤其是在文本添加的领域。在本文中，我们研究了一个这样的文本应用程序，这是一个既定的经济指数，该指数衡量了新闻中关键字出现的经济政策不确定性。该指数与公司投资，就业和过度市场收益相关，对私营部门和学术界都有实质性影响。但是，随着我们对原始作者的注释和文本测量进行重新访问和扩展，我们发现有趣的文本 - 数据学方法学研究问题：（1）注释者分歧是否反映了语言的歧义？ （2）替代文本测量是否相互关联并与外部预测有效性的衡量相关？我们发现该应用程序（1）对经济政策不确定性的一些注释者分歧可能归因于语言的歧义，以及（2）将测量值从关键单词匹配到监督机器学习分类器的切换导致较低的相关性，这是对索引有效性的含义。
Methods and applications are inextricably linked in science, and in particular in the domain of text-as-data. In this paper, we examine one such text-as-data application, an established economic index that measures economic policy uncertainty from keyword occurrences in news. This index, which is shown to correlate with firm investment, employment, and excess market returns, has had substantive impact in both the private sector and academia. Yet, as we revisit and extend the original authors' annotations and text measurements we find interesting text-as-data methodological research questions: (1) Are annotator disagreements a reflection of ambiguity in language? (2) Do alternative text measurements correlate with one another and with measures of external predictive validity? We find for this application (1) some annotator disagreements of economic policy uncertainty can be attributed to ambiguity in language, and (2) switching measurements from keyword-matching to supervised machine learning classifiers results in low correlation, a concerning implication for the validity of the index.
