论文标题
指纹识别热浪和冷咒，并使用大偏差理论评估它们对气候变化的反应
Fingerprinting Heatwaves and Cold Spells and Assessing Their Response to Climate Change using Large Deviation Theory
论文作者
论文摘要
极端事件提供了有关气候动态的相关见解，其理解是减轻气候变化和气候变化的影响的关键。通过将大型偏差理论应用于最先进的地球系统模型，我们通过估计表面温度的速率函数来定义关键目标地理区域中持续的热浪和冷咒语的气候，并评估增加CO $ _2 $浓度对此类持久疾病的影响。因此，我们可以更好地量化在温暖气候下的热浪中增加的危险{\ color {black {black {black}我们表明，2010年的两次高影响事件 - 蒙古的夏季俄罗斯热浪和冬季Dzud与典型的大气模式有关，与典型的模式相比是特殊的，但与极端的气候相比。它们的动态是在气候的自然变异性中编码的。最后，我们提出并测试了一个近似公式，以从易于访问的统计特性中较大和持续的温度波动的返回时间。
Extreme events provide relevant insights into the dynamics of climate and their understanding is key for mitigating the impact of climate variability and climate change. By applying large deviation theory to a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we define the climatology of persistent heatwaves and cold spells in key target geographical regions by estimating the rate functions for the surface temperature, and we assess the impact of increasing CO$_2$ concentration on such persistent anomalies. Hence, we can better quantify the increasing hazard {\color{black}due} to heatwaves in a warmer climate. We show that two 2010 high impact events - summer Russian heatwave and winter Dzud in Mongolia - are associated with atmospheric patterns that are exceptional compared to the typical ones, but typical compared to the climatology of extremes. Their dynamics is encoded in the natural variability of the climate. Finally, we propose and test an approximate formula for the return times of large and persistent temperature fluctuations from easily accessible statistical properties.
